Monday, March 14, 2016

I've decided

Tomorrow is Election Day. I've finally decided who I will vote for in Florida’s Republican Presidential Preference Primary.

I wrote just over a month ago that the possibility of a Trump presidency is terrifying. I registered as a Republican to vote in that party’s primary election to try to keep him from becoming the nominee. The question I’ve struggled with since then was who to vote for.

Why I waited
I've had my mail-in ballot for over a month, and early voting had been available since March 5th. But I waited until the last minute mainly because Florida’s Republican Party will award 100% of its delegates to the winner of the primary (“winner take all”), unlike in other states where they have been awarded until now on a proportional basis. So it seemed to me that the only way to block a Trump nomination is to vote for the candidate who has the best chance of beating him.

Rubio has consistently been second in the Florida match-up polls, but I waited to make sure he didn’t drop out before Election Day. As recently as last week, CNN reported that “A battle is being waged within [Rubio’s] campaign about whether he should even remain in the Republican presidential race ahead of his home state primary on March 15.”

But Rubio has consistently said he’s staying in, and I can’t put off my vote much longer.

It looks pretty hopeless
That said, the chances of anyone but Trump winning the Florida primary are remote. The average of the most recent polls show him ahead of his closest challenger, Rubio, by close to 20 points.

03/13/16
Yes, polls can be wrong. See, for example, “Why were the polls in Michigan so wrong?,” about Hillary’s loss to Sanders in Michigan. But in Florida’s case, being wrong would mean someone OTHER than Trump would win … which would be fine with me.

I’m voting for Rubio
For now, the Republican with the best chance of beating Trump on Tuesday is Rubio. So that’s who I’ll be voting for.

Onward.

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